Makrofokus

Här hittar du våra senaste temaanalyser av aktuella ämnen och händelser som påverkar svensk och internationell ekonomi.
Här hittar du våra senaste temaanalyser av aktuella ämnen och händelser som påverkar svensk och internationell ekonomi.
3 december 2020: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
18 nov: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
4 november 2020: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
2 nov 2020: The short guide to the US election (pdf)
Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
8 oktober 2020: Läs frågor och svar här (pdf)
• The Nordic economies are recovering but the spread of the virus remains a big unknown
• Special theme: the Nordic housing market – Prices at new record highs
• We foresee continued house price increases but at a slower pace
1 oktober 2020: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
29 september 2020: Sammanfattning: Bättre- men inte bra (pdf)
24 september 2020: A key election for the planet (pdf)
Gröna investeringar utgör hittills en marginell del av de globala stimulanserna. Sverige har annonserat minst gröna stimulanser i Norden men mer förväntas komma.
26 augusti 2020: Ännu ingen grön återhämtning
The Swedish government’s first green bond is an important political signal and will support spending towards Sweden’s environmental targets. Given the state’s increased borrowing needs, the timing of the green bond issuance is good.
24 augusti 2020: Swedish Green Bond: Time for issuance
Will EU's recovery fund help in reaching targets?
25 juni 2020: Macro Focus - Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed (pdf)
Real-time data is an important input to timely economic forecasting, especially during a crisis. Swedbank Pay’s daily transaction data aligns well with the official consumption statistics. The latest data indicates a recovery in May and June, albeit from a low level.
24 juni 2020: Macro Focus: Real-time transaction data (pdf)
Political momentum and cheaper renewables support a greener crisis recovery in Europe. The Nordics are on the right track, but more is needed.
22 juni 2020: A greenish recovery
The Nordic and Baltic economies will be hard hit by the Covid-19-induced shock due to their small size and relative openness. However, the Nordics and Baltics are well prepared to take on the challenge.
26 maj 2020: Nordic-Baltic Business Report (pdf)
Historical drops in GDP in the Nordics while unemployment surges. Private consumption takes a deep hit due to containment measures
29 April 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly (pdf)
Priserna kommer att falla i spåren av Coronakrisen men efter krisen väntas bostadsmarknaden återhämta sig
7 april 2020: Svensk bostadsmarknad; Coronaviruset leder till prisfall på bostäder
Begränsade effekter på tillväxt och arbetsmarknader i Norden och Baltikum hittills men vid ett sannolikt scenario blir följder stora på både tillväxt och arbetsmarknader.
5 mars 2020: Corona slår mot Norden och Baltikum
Growth in Nordics between 1 and 2 % in 2020. Corona weighs on interest rates and Scandies. Special theme: Finland is getting too old.
26 februari 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly
The federal funds rate was left unchanged, but a 5 bps increase of the IOER. We continue to expect federal funds to be unchanged although risks are leaning towards more easing.
30 januari 2019: Fed update: No big surprises
27 januari 2019: China: Coronavirus will have a negative, but limited, effect on the Chinese economy
Annual rotation of regional president not causing a shift in monetary policy. We do not expect any further rate cuts, but the downside risks dominate.
24 januari 2019: Fed preview: Continued on hold
No changes in monetary policy. Strategic revire launched as expected.
23 januari 2019: ECB comment: Nothing new, but the review
Inom EU bubblar en slags grön protektionism. Bland annat förespråkas koldioxidtullar, som skulle kunna bidra till att minska de globala utsläppen. För svensk del skulle tullarna innebära högre kostnader för hushåll och företag men även förstärkt konkurrenskraft för vissa företag.
21 januari 2020: Grön protektionism – hot eller möjlighet
No changes in monetary policy expected on Thursday. The big event is the launch of the strategic review of monetary policy.
21 januari 2019: ECB preview: ECB to launch its strategic review
17 januari 2019: China: Growth stabilizes as stimulus and trade deal lend support, but the long term slowdown drivers remain
Turnover drops in all sectors compared to 2019 Christmas shopping. Two shopping days short of last year and more online shopping warrant a cautious interpretation of the magnitude.
13 januari: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Christmas shopping and holiday sales underperformed as spending in shops decreased markedly. For the full-year 2020, spending was 5% lower than 2019, while spending on services declined by 28%.
23 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Restaurants and hotels spending improved and seems to have left the bottom behind. Home electronics, clothes and shoes spending suggest an early start to Christmas shopping.
16 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Spending on social activities continues to drop. Yet no signs of early Christmas shopping.
9 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Spending on home electronics increased by 22% compared to Black week in 2019. The drop in the service sector seems to have stabilised, but at very low levels.
2 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Overall spending drops to 10% below last years’ level as service sectors struggle. Spending patterns similar to the first wave, but without hoarding of food.
25 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)
Spending is trending downwards, although it remained at 8% below last year’s level in past week. Restaurants and clothing drop, while spending on home electronics and durables increase.
18 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)
Spending dropped markedly in early November. Restaurant turnover was down 40%. Tighter restrictions directly affected spending in restaurants as is clear from Uppsala and other places.
11 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)
Spending has increased markedly in recent days; probably due to payday, staycations and Halloween. Spending trend remains stable, but expected to decline due to new restrictions.
4 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)
Consumer spending still fairly stable, just below last year’s level. Significant regional differences in restaurant spending.
21 Oktober: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)
Consumer spending steady, just below last year’s level. The near-term development remains fragile and depends on the corona evolution.
7 Oktober 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Consumer spending stable at a few percent below last year’s level. Corona continues to boost spending on groceries, home electronics, and home furnishing.
23 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Continued stable spending during last week at about 2% below last year’s level, and the growth rate in total spending seems to have reached a new, but temporary, normal.
16 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
After a fairly stable summer, September has started off on a stronger footing. Spending patterns are starting to look more and more like 2019 for several sectors, albeit on a lower level.
9 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Payday bounceback and almost all sectors improved in level terms. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.
2 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Card transaction turnover improved during last week in level terms, but fell in annual terms due to a pay day effect. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.
26 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is still on track of approaching last year’s level. Growth is driven by groceries spending and offset mainly by a decline in recreation & culture and airlines & travel agencies.
19 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is approaching last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels continue to improve, while spending on groceries is much higher compared to last year.
12 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Some sectors are closing up the gap to 2019 spending. Travel related spending persists at extremely low levels, while spending on restaurants & hotels is approaching normal levels
5 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Swedish card transaction data up until 25th of July shows spending at about 5% below last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels show a significant improvement, while spending on groceries is less elevated compared to a month ago.
29 juli 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Swedish card transaction data up until 20th of June shows that spending recovered further, and total turnover is now back to last year’s level, with a different composition, however. Total spending excluding grocery stores is also improving and is now down by 8% compared to a year ago.
24 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Swedish card transaction data up until 13th of June continues to show lower spending compared to a year ago. Underlying trend in spending seems to be picking up slightly.
17 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)