Makrofokus

Här hittar du våra senaste temaanalyser av aktuella ämnen och händelser som påverkar svensk och internationell ekonomi.

Analyser

Räntebladet – mars 2021

Långräntor har stigit relativt mycket hittills i år. Det har främst drivits av utvecklingen i USA vilket även har spillt över på svenska räntor.
Vi reviderar upp våra prognoser för svenska räntor med längre löptider.

8 mars 2021:Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

Nordic Macro Monthly - The turnaround is close, but downside risks dominate

The Nordic economies stand strong and pre-crisis GDP levels are within reach
The pandemic still threatens the recovery as mutation variants spread and vaccination lags
Special theme: Targeted and timely support to businesses remains crucial

23 February 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Elnätet: En nyckelfråga för tillväxt och grön omställning

Den gröna omställningen ställer höga krav på Sveriges redan ansträngda elnät. Kraftigt ökade investeringar behövs och är planerade, men risken är stor att de dröjer. Det finns lösningar för kapacitetsbristen men många pusselbitar behöver komma på plats.

11 februari 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här

Nordic Macro Monthly - Pent up demand will boost Nordics towards summer

Growth will pick up in the second half of 2021, once the coronavirus vaccine is rolled out
Policy will remain accommodative, Norges Bank will be an early mover and hike in 2021
Special theme: Uneven retail trade partly explained by less cross-border trading

3 december 2020: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Nordic Macro Monthly - Booming house prices

• The Nordic economies are recovering but the spread of the virus remains a big unknown
• Special theme: the Nordic housing market – Prices at new record highs
• We foresee continued house price increases but at a slower pace

1 oktober 2020: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Rapport- Handels utsikter

29 september 2020: Sammanfattning: Bättre- men inte bra (pdf)

Trump, Biden and climate policy

24 september 2020: A key election for the planet (pdf)

Ännu ingen grön återhämtning

Gröna investeringar utgör hittills en marginell del av de globala stimulanserna. Sverige har annonserat minst gröna stimulanser i Norden men mer förväntas komma.

26 augusti 2020: Ännu ingen grön återhämtning

Swedish Green Bond: Time for issuance

The Swedish government’s first green bond is an important political signal and will support spending towards Sweden’s environmental targets. Given the state’s increased borrowing needs, the timing of the green bond issuance is good.

24 augusti 2020: Swedish Green Bond: Time for issuance

Macro Focus - Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed

Will EU's recovery fund help in reaching targets?

25 juni 2020: Macro Focus - Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed (pdf)

Macro Focus: Real-time transaction data

Real-time data is an important input to timely economic forecasting, especially during a crisis. Swedbank Pay’s daily transaction data aligns well with the official consumption statistics. The latest data indicates a recovery in May and June, albeit from a low level.

24 juni 2020: Macro Focus: Real-time transaction data (pdf)

A greenish recovery

Political momentum and cheaper renewables support a greener crisis recovery in Europe. The Nordics are on the right track, but more is needed.

22 juni 2020: A greenish recovery

Nordic-Baltic Business Report: Well prepared to take on the challenge

The Nordic and Baltic economies will be hard hit by the Covid-19-induced shock due to their small size and relative openness. However, the Nordics and Baltics are well prepared to take on the challenge.

26 maj 2020: Nordic-Baltic Business Report (pdf)

Nordic Macro Monthly: Small economies get even smaller.

Historical drops in GDP in the Nordics while unemployment surges. Private consumption takes a deep hit due to containment measures

29 April 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly (pdf)

Svensk bostadsmarknad; Coronaviruset leder till prisfall på bostäder

Priserna kommer att falla i spåren av Coronakrisen men efter krisen väntas bostadsmarknaden återhämta sig

7 april 2020: Svensk bostadsmarknad; Coronaviruset leder till prisfall på bostäder

Corona slår mot Norden och Baltikum

Begränsade effekter på tillväxt och arbetsmarknader i Norden och Baltikum hittills men vid ett sannolikt scenario blir följder stora på både tillväxt och arbetsmarknader.

5 mars 2020: Corona slår mot Norden och Baltikum

Nordic Macro Monthly: Strong domestic demand keeps Nordics afloat amid virus fears

Growth in Nordics between 1 and 2 % in 2020. Corona weighs on interest rates and Scandies. Special theme: Finland is getting too old.

26 februari 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly

Fed update: No big surprises

The federal funds rate was left unchanged, but a 5 bps increase of the IOER. We continue to expect federal funds to be unchanged although risks are leaning towards more easing.
30 januari 2019: Fed update: No big surprises

China: Coronavirus will have a negative, but limited, effect on the Chinese economy

27 januari 2019: China: Coronavirus will have a negative, but limited, effect on the Chinese economy

Fed preview: Continued on hold

Annual rotation of regional president not causing a shift in monetary policy. We do not expect any further rate cuts, but the downside risks dominate.
24 januari 2019: Fed preview: Continued on hold

ECB comment: Nothing new, but the review

No changes in monetary policy. Strategic revire launched as expected.
23 januari 2019: ECB comment: Nothing new, but the review

Grön protektionism - hot eller möjlighet

Inom EU bubblar en slags grön protektionism. Bland annat förespråkas koldioxidtullar, som skulle kunna bidra till att minska de globala utsläppen. För svensk del skulle tullarna innebära högre kostnader för hushåll och företag men även förstärkt konkurrenskraft för vissa företag.

21 januari 2020: Grön protektionism – hot eller möjlighet

ECB preview: ECB to launch its strategic review

No changes in monetary policy expected on Thursday. The big event is the launch of the strategic review of monetary policy.
21 januari 2019: ECB preview: ECB to launch its strategic review

China: Growth stabilizes as stimulus and trade deal lend support, but the long term slowdown drivers remain

17 januari 2019: China: Growth stabilizes as stimulus and trade deal lend support, but the long term slowdown drivers remain

Consumer Spending Observer

Consumer Spending Observer: A broken trend or a temporary setback?

Spending improved in recent week as compared with the worst week of the pandemic in 2020, but declined compared to 2019. The four-week trend has declined somewhat for goods while it has flattened for services spending (data until April 17th).

21 april: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Easter spending resurrection proved short-lived

Annual growth rate weakened in recent week, and spending compared to 2019 was back in negative territory. The trend in the service sector remains positive, while spending on goods dropped.

14 april: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Sharp increase in spending during Easter week

Total spending increased 1.3% compared to 2019 and was even higher compared to 2020: 17.6% (data until April 3rd). Spending on groceries contributed the most and was elevated compared to Easter both in 2020 and 2019.

7 april: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Payday and base effects lift the annual rate

Total spending is almost 13% higher than last year’s level, but remains below normal levels. The trend is still encouraging, and spending on both goods and services has increased in recent months.

31 mars: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Sharp increase in the annual rate due to base effects nevertheless the trend in spending is improving

Total spending increases to 1.6% above last year’s level (data until March 20th), but remains 4.6% below normal levels. Annual growth rate of services spending goes positive, although the turnover remains nearly 40% below normal levels.

24 mars: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Slightly higher spending last week when services improved due to base effects

Total spending was -3% last week, while the four-week average was -5.5% (y/y, data up to 6th of March). Spending on goods was 2% higher and spending on services was 28% lower than last year’s level.

10 mars: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: February started strong but ended a bit weaker

Spending on goods declined at the end of the month. Higher spending on services, but favourable base effects are starting to kick in.

3 mars: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Slightly lower spending last week

Total spending was -6% last week, while the four-week average was -5% (y/y, data up to 20th of February). Spending on goods was 3% higher than last year’s level, while spending on services was 39% lower.

24 feb: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending stabilises at 5% below last year’s level

Spending on restaurants & hotels has not kept up the pace with improving hospitalisations. Goods spending has been elevated in recent weeks.

17 feb: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending kicked off on a stronger footing in February

Spending on recreation and culture above pre-crisis levels. Services spending still muted albeit a bit higher.

10 feb: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending bounces on payday effect

Spending in recent week rose and stood only 5% below last year’s level, but January was still the second worst month since the pandemic outbreak.

3 feb: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending drops 15% during the poorest week of the year

Spending on services remain muted but no obvious effects from alcohol-ban at restaurants. Regional data suggests not a lot of travelling during the holidays.

27 jan: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer Sweden: Continued weakness in spending

Total transaction turnover stabilised at 8% below last year’s level. After a volatile December, spending patterns have returned to a “pandemic normal”.

21 jan: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Christmas shopping is lagging behind

Turnover drops in all sectors compared to 2019 Christmas shopping. Two shopping days short of last year and more online shopping warrant a cautious interpretation of the magnitude.

13 januari: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending ends 2020 at 17% below 2019 level

Christmas shopping and holiday sales underperformed as spending in shops decreased markedly. For the full-year 2020, spending was 5% lower than 2019, while spending on services declined by 28%.

23 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Slight rebound in services spending

Restaurants and hotels spending improved and seems to have left the bottom behind. Home electronics, clothes and shoes spending suggest an early start to Christmas shopping.

16 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Restaurant and hotel spending at a 2020 low

Spending on social activities continues to drop. Yet no signs of early Christmas shopping.

9 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Black week home electronics mania

Spending on home electronics increased by 22% compared to Black week in 2019. The drop in the service sector seems to have stabilised, but at very low levels.

2 december: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Restaurant and hotel spending back to worst crisis levels

Overall spending drops to 10% below last years’ level as service sectors struggle. Spending patterns similar to the first wave, but without hoarding of food.

25 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Restriction-sensitive sectors fall, but goods counteract

Spending is trending downwards, although it remained at 8% below last year’s level in past week. Restaurants and clothing drop, while spending on home electronics and durables increase.

18 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: The expected decline has begun

Spending dropped markedly in early November. Restaurant turnover was down 40%. Tighter restrictions directly affected spending in restaurants as is clear from Uppsala and other places.

11 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: New restrictions are not visable in the spending data- yet

Spending has increased markedly in recent days; probably due to payday, staycations and Halloween. Spending trend remains stable, but expected to decline due to new restrictions.

4 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Holding on to the trend. Just

Consumer spending still fairly stable, just below last year’s level. Significant regional differences in restaurant spending.

21 Oktober: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish consumption remains stable

Consumer spending steady, just below last year’s level. The near-term development remains fragile and depends on the corona evolution.

7 Oktober 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Nothing new to report

Consumer spending stable at a few percent below last year’s level. Corona continues to boost spending on groceries, home electronics, and home furnishing.

23 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: A new normal?

Continued stable spending during last week at about 2% below last year’s level, and the growth rate in total spending seems to have reached a new, but temporary, normal.

16 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is almost back in town

After a fairly stable summer, September has started off on a stronger footing. Spending patterns are starting to look more and more like 2019 for several sectors, albeit on a lower level.

9 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Growth is picking up

Payday bounceback and almost all sectors improved in level terms. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.

2 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Temporary decline, stable trend

Card transaction turnover improved during last week in level terms, but fell in annual terms due to a pay day effect. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.

26 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending slowly climbs up

Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is still on track of approaching last year’s level. Growth is driven by groceries spending and offset mainly by a decline in recreation & culture and airlines & travel agencies.

19 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is improving in the first week of August, while the trend remains stable

Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is approaching last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels continue to improve, while spending on groceries is much higher compared to last year.

12 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending during the last week, July, and the summer: all stable at about 5% below last year’s level

Some sectors are closing up the gap to 2019 spending. Travel related spending persists at extremely low levels, while spending on restaurants & hotels is approaching normal levels

5 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is somewhat below last year’s level, but the differences across sectors decrease

Swedish card transaction data up until 25th of July shows spending at about 5% below last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels show a significant improvement, while spending on groceries is less elevated compared to a month ago.

29 juli 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is back to last year’s level

Swedish card transaction data up until 20th of June shows that spending recovered further, and total turnover is now back to last year’s level, with a different composition, however. Total spending excluding grocery stores is also improving and is now down by 8% compared to a year ago.

24 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction spending below normal levels, but improvement underway

Swedish card transaction data up until 13th of June continues to show lower spending compared to a year ago. Underlying trend in spending seems to be picking up slightly.

17 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

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