Macro Focus - Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed

Will EU's recovery fund help in reaching targets?

25 juni 2020: Macro Focus - Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is back to last year’s level

Swedish card transaction data up until 20th of June shows that spending recovered further, and total turnover is now back to last year’s level, with a different composition, however. Total spending excluding grocery stores is also improving and is now down by 8% compared to a year ago.

24 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Macro Focus: Real-time transaction data

Real-time data is an important input to timely economic forecasting, especially during a crisis. Swedbank Pay’s daily transaction data aligns well with the official consumption statistics. The latest data indicates a recovery in May and June, albeit from a low level.

24 juni 2020: Macro Focus: Real-time transaction data (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction spending below normal levels, but improvement underway

Swedish card transaction data up until 13th of June continues to show lower spending compared to a year ago. Underlying trend in spending seems to be picking up slightly.

17 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction data up until 6th of June shows some stabilisation of spending

Spending has been stable in recent weeks, but summer is approaching, and some restrictions will be relaxed.Total spending is mainly dragged down by hotels and restaurants; however, spending on it continues to improve every week.

10 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction data up until 30th of May continues to show dampened but stable spending

Spending has recovered since the bottom in mid-April but remains lower compared to a year ago. Total spending is mainly dragged down by hotels and restaurants, while grocery spending contributes positively.

3 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction data up until 23th of May continues to show depressed spending

Spending has recovered since the bottom in mid-April but remains significantly lower compared to a year ago. Total spending is mainly dragged down by hotels and restaurants, while grocery spending contributes positively.

27 maj 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Nordic-Baltic Business Report: Well prepared to take on the challenge

The Nordic and Baltic economies will be hard hit by the Covid-19-induced shock due to their small size and relative openness. However, the Nordics and Baltics are well prepared to take on the challenge.

26 maj 2020: Nordic-Baltic Business Report (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction data up until 12th of May continue to show stabilisation

Spending has recovered since the bottom in mid-April but remains significantly lower compared to a year ago. While travel related spending is still very muted, going-out activities show a small improvement in recent weeks.

18 maj 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction data shows some improvement since the bottom

Spending have gradually improved since the bottom in mid-April but remains significantly lower compared to a year ago. During the period of April 30th - May 6th, overall spending declined by 7% and excluding grocery stores by 18% annually.

11 maj 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction data shows further decline in spending

During the period of April 6th –19th, overall spending declined by 17% and excluding grocery stores by 27% annually. Spending on clothing, hotels & restaurants are down by almost 50% compared to a year ago.

27 April 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Nordic Macro Monthly: Small economies get even smaller.

Historical drops in GDP in the Nordics while unemployment surges. Private consumption takes a deep hit due to containment measures

29 April 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction data shows a sharp decline in spending in recent week

Spending decreased by 24% anually in the first two weeks of April excluding grocery stores. Travel related to spending is almost completely gone ang going-out activities are down by half

20 april 2020: Customer Spending Observer (pdf)

Svensk bostadsmarknad; Coronaviruset leder till prisfall på bostäder

Priserna kommer att falla i spåren av Coronakrisen men efter krisen väntas bostadsmarknaden återhämta sig

7 april 2020: Svensk bostadsmarknad; Coronaviruset leder till prisfall på bostäder

Corona slår mot Norden och Baltikum

Begränsade effekter på tillväxt och arbetsmarknader i Norden och Baltikum hittills men vid ett sannolikt scenario blir följder stora på både tillväxt och arbetsmarknader.

5 mars 2020: Corona slår mot Norden och Baltikum

Nordic Macro Monthly: Strong domestic demand keeps Nordics afloat amid virus fears

Growth in Nordics between 1 and 2 % in 2020. Corona weighs on interest rates and Scandies. Special theme: Finland is getting too old.

26 februari 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly

Fed update: No big surprises

The federal funds rate was left unchanged, but a 5 bps increase of the IOER. We continue to expect federal funds to be unchanged although risks are leaning towards more easing.
30 januari 2019: Fed update: No big surprises

China: Coronavirus will have a negative, but limited, effect on the Chinese economy

27 januari 2019: China: Coronavirus will have a negative, but limited, effect on the Chinese economy

Fed preview: Continued on hold

Annual rotation of regional president not causing a shift in monetary policy. We do not expect any further rate cuts, but the downside risks dominate.
24 januari 2019: Fed preview: Continued on hold

ECB comment: Nothing new, but the review

No changes in monetary policy. Strategic revire launched as expected.
23 januari 2019: ECB comment: Nothing new, but the review

Grön protektionism - hot eller möjlighet

Inom EU bubblar en slags grön protektionism. Bland annat förespråkas koldioxidtullar, som skulle kunna bidra till att minska de globala utsläppen. För svensk del skulle tullarna innebära högre kostnader för hushåll och företag men även förstärkt konkurrenskraft för vissa företag.

21 januari 2020: Grön protektionism – hot eller möjlighet

ECB preview: ECB to launch its strategic review

No changes in monetary policy expected on Thursday. The big event is the launch of the strategic review of monetary policy.
21 januari 2019: ECB preview: ECB to launch its strategic review

China: Growth stabilizes as stimulus and trade deal lend support, but the long term slowdown drivers remain

17 januari 2019: China: Growth stabilizes as stimulus and trade deal lend support, but the long term slowdown drivers remain